Prognostication – partisan deaths increase Dec 2021

I actually would like to be wrong. I might be – just ask my wife about my track record. Yet this time it is different. In the United States at the moment there is a pretty large political divide, shoot, if the news is to be believed they are set for another civil war.

One of the few things that has been a constant is over the last year quite a few American citizens have been taking it on faith that Covid is not all that deadly, and when it is the casualty numbers are about 1%. I don’t think that is true, perhaps I am a weak minded person who believes just anything that the medical community is willing to say. Quite a few of the southern states are full of Republicans and quite a few Republicans – approximate 50% – will not be getting vaccinated.

The most common reasons why people are refusing a Covid 19 vaccination

  • They don’t believe they are safe
  • They don’t believe they are necessary.

Not only that quite a few of these deniers can do math, well, know what a number is. One percent is smallish number. I don’t have any data that suggests Democrats are also not deniers but based on quite a few news stories they tend to be more likely to get vaccinated.

The nature of viruses is to spread and they can more easily spread where conditions are right and there is a an available host. If there are lots of unvaccinated people there will be more who will catch Covid and in the worse case die. If the set of unvaccinated people is mainly from one political group there will be a larger concentration of deaths in that group.

Lets hope I am wrong and the Covid variants that are spreading in 6 months are more benign.

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